NFL Pick: Hopeful Philadelphia Eagles Meet Surging Miami Dolphins

Saturday, December 10, 2011

by Aengus Moorehead

Reggie Bush - NFL Pick: Hopeful Philadelphia Eagles Meet Surging Miami Dolphins

Analysis:
Though the Philadelphia Eagles and Miami Dolphins share identical overall records at this stage of the season, the recent results of the two teams couldn't be any more different heading into their Week 14 encounter.

While the revitalized Dolphins enter Sunday's matchup with the Eagles flying high off another impressive win, Philadelphia limps into Sun Life Stadium trying to bounce back once again from a head-scratching loss that's been all too common during a 2011 campaign of unmet expectations.

Pegged as a prime Super Bowl contender following a flurry of high-profile and headline-grabbing offseason moves, the Eagles' chances of even reaching the playoffs have all but vanished after losses in four of their last five outings. The latest defeat, a 31-14 throttling at Seattle on Dec. 1, dropped the defending NFC East champions to 4-8 on the year and placed Philadelphia three games out of a postseason spot with just four to go.

Miami also stands as an extreme long shot to advance to the NFL's second season, but the team has certainly played like it belongs as of late. The Dolphins have registered four victories in five games since an awful 0-7 start and outscored the opposition by an eyebrow-raising 139-54 margin over that span.

The best performance of the bunch may have taken place this past Sunday, when the Dolphins dominated an Oakland Raiders squad that had won three straight times and was leading the AFC West by a 34-14 count at Sun Life Stadium. Miami owned a 34-0 advantage after three quarters and piled up a season-high 209 rushing yards en route to the rout.

The Eagles likely aren't feeling as euphoric as their opponent this week due to their rough stretch, but the team did receive some positive news on two key contributors that had been out with injuries. Quarterback Michael Vick is set to return for Sunday's clash after sitting out the last three contests with fractured ribs suffered in a deflating 21-17 home setback to non-contending Arizona on Nov. 13, while top wide receiver Jeremy Maclin is also on track to play after missing three straight games as well due a hamstring strain and a sprained shoulder.

Vince Young went 1-2 while running the offense in Vick's absence, but threw eight interceptions over that time period. Four of those picks came in the loss to the Seahawks, with Seattle converting three of them into touchdowns.

The Eagles have turned the ball over a league-high 29 times this season and own a troubling minus-13 takeaway-to-giveaway ratio in their 12 tests. The Dolphins, on the other hand, are plus-four in that department during their five-game surge.

Miami will be seeking a fourth consecutive triumph at Sun Life Stadium on Sunday and has won its last three home bouts by an average of 19.3 points.

The Dolphins hold a 7-5 edge in their all-time series with Philadelphia, but the Eagles have won the last two meetings between the clubs and dealt Miami a 17-7 defeat in the latest encounter, which took place at Lincoln Financial Field in 2007. Philadelphia also came out on top by a 34-27 count in its last visit to Miami, which occurred in 2003 and stands as the Eagles' only victory in six games as the visitor in this set.

Philadelphia head coach Andy Reid has gone 2-1 against Miami during his 13-year tenure with the Eagles, while Tony Sparano will be opposing both Philadelphia and Reid for the first time in his present position.

Time & Venue:
- 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, December 11, 2011. Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

Last Week's results:
- Philadelphia Eagles (-3) loses to host Seattle Seahawks 31-14.
- Miami Dolphins (+3) beats visiting Oakland Raiders 34-14.

Last week's ATS:
- Favourite Philadelphia Eagles (4-8) loses outright
- Underdog Miami Dolphins (4-8) wins outright.

NFL Football Odds: Dolphins -3, O/U: 45.5.

Next up:
- Philadelphia home to NY Jets, Sunday, December 18
- Miami at Buffalo Bills, Sunday, December 18

Philadelphia had one last chance to save its season last Thursday at Seattle. Instead, the Eagles committed four turnovers in a 31-14 loss. Wide receiver DeSean Jackson has spent the season grumbling about his contract and has had his effort questioned recently. Vick has already accounted for 14 of Philadelphia’s league-high 29 turnovers in nine games. He had three interceptions and no touchdowns in his last two outings.

Miami appears to be on a mission to save coach Tony Sparano’s job by consistently playing above its talent. Matt Moore has five touchdowns and no interceptions in his last three starts and has gone 3-1 with a 95.9 passer rating and a 64.5 completion percentage in four home starts. Moore has benefited from an inspired Reggie Bush, who reached 100 yards rushing for the second time this season in last week’s 34-14 win over the Oakland Raiders. The defense has been doing its part as well, allowing an average of 8.5 points in the four wins.

Turnovers have been a major liability for the Eagles this season. They've had three or more giveaways in a game six times in 2011 and won only one of those contests, while they're 2-0 in the two times they've come out ahead in the turnover battle. Conversely, Miami's strong run has been greatly helped by the defense's ability to force mistakes. The Dolphins have gone 3-1 while creating seven takeaways over their last four outings, but had just four in going 1-7 over the first half.

The Dolphins have been as good as anyone in defending opposing ground attacks over the last four weeks, having yielded a paltry 58.3 yards per game over that span. An Eagles team that's been held under 100 rushing yards just once this season may be Miami's biggest test to date, however, especially considering the problems the elusive Vick presents as a scrambler.

The red zone defense could be prove to be a huge advantage for Miami in a close game. The Dolphins have surrendered touchdowns on just 37.8 percent of red-zone possessions, the fourth-best success rate in the NFL. The Eagles, however, have allowed six points on a league-worst 70.6 percent of such drives, and opponents have cashed in 12-of-16 opportunities against Philly over the last five games.

The Dolphins are bidding to become the first team in NFL history to win at least seven games after beginning the season with seven straight losses.

With two more carries, Bush will match his career high (157).

Eagles RB LeSean McCoy (15) needs four TDs to pass Steve Van Buren for the most scores in a season in franchise history.

Miami is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Philadelphia
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Miami is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Philadelphia's last 12 games on the road

With their playoff hopes just about cooked, it's hard to pinpoint just how much motivation the Eagles will have in this game. There are no such reservations about the Dolphins, however, as Miami has played with both pride and purpose for five straight weeks even with their postseason fortunes going up in smoke.

While Vick's return could bring the boost Philadelphia needs to get back on track, he'll also be facing a defense that's been lights out as of late on a four-week layoff. Simply put, the Eagles have been far too untrustworthy to recommend, especially against an opponent that's been sound in just about all areas in recent weeks.

Bet on NFL Football games with Bodog Sportsbook, click here!

NFL Football Pick: Take Dolphins.

Related Articles

Category

Tags

afc west - andy reid - buffalo bills - desean jackson - jeremy maclin - lesean mccoy - matt moore - miami dolphins - michael vick - nfc east

Share this page